Optimization

Subject

Once a model is considered adequatebecause it correctly reflects the systems behavior and allows for reliable forecastsit is then optimized. This involves expanding the number of cases studied to ensure that no situations are misrepresented and refining the estimation of the models parameters. In a second stage, the focus is on identifying where the model is most imprecise and exploring whether modifications to the assumed mechanisms could better reflect the systems behavior. The useful life of a model ends when natural limits are reached in which it disagrees with observations and no optimization can correct these discrepancies. Over time, new and more general models emerge, while older ones gradually disappear as their inconsistencies become evident.

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